Simulation-based Strategy Development

A series of participatory System Dynamics modelling activities carried out to develop a simulation model and related interface, focused on people’s Use of urban natural Space (UoS). The UoS model has been used by a group of stakeholders to collaboratively test scenarios and strategies around the case study of Thamesmead, London, United Kingdom.

Details

The participatory quantification process is highly grounded on stakeholders’ knowledge. To quantify the causal relationships within the participatory activities, several effect variables are included, such as the effect of accessibility on UoS, effect of space design elements on perception of safety, and effect of co-design on awareness. The quantification and modelling process included a series of steps used to co-develop with the stakeholders the SD simulation model on the UoS. These steps are:

1. Building an aggregated CLD on people’s use of space.
2. Building the use of space simulation model.
3. Quantification and parametrisation of the use of space SD model.
4. Model presentation and structure validation.
5. Reference model validation.
6. Model finalisation and interface building.
7. Scenarios building in interface.
8. Scenario analysis.
9. Strategy development and learning.

After following these steps and using the UoS model, the stakeholders argued that the engagement of local residents using a co-design process for the design of the urban natural spaces is likely to have a greater impact on their use, which means that it would be more likely that the spaces are fit for purpose and used more.

This work was co-funded by the CUSSH (Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health) and CAMELLIA projects.

The Use of Space tool developed for Thamesmead can be found at:
https://exchange.iseesystems.com/public/ucl/thamesmead-use-of-natural-space-model/index.html#page1❐

Keywords:

System Dynamics, Causal Loop Diagrams, Participatory modelling, simulation, model, strategy, stakeholders

Links:

• Pluchinotta, I., Zhou, K., Moore, G., Salvia, G., Belesova, K., Mohajeri, N., Hale, J., Davies, M., Zimmermann, N. (2024). Co-producing knowledge on the use of urban natural space: Participatory system dynamics modelling to understand a complex urban system. Journal of Environmental Management, 353, 120110. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120110 ❐
• Pluchinotta, I., Zhou, K., Zimmermann, N. (2024) Dealing with soft variables and data scarcity: lessons learnt from the quantification in a participatory System Dynamics modelling process. System Dynamics Review, 40(3) – forthcoming.